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Studies of birth rate, natural increment and death rate dynamics of Aral region population helped to set major tendencies in demographic processes for dwellers in ecologic disaster area. Morbidity parameters were evaluated via ICD-10 classes with distribution in age and sex, that helped to identify leading classes of diseases in the population of Kyzylorda region. DALY index parameters were estimated through complex evaluation of health losses due to disablement and mortality among adult population of Kyzylorda region. The studies covered 5 districts of Kyzylorda region (Aral, Kazalin, Zhalagash, Karmaksh, Shiely). The parameters were analysed retrospectively over 10 years--from 2004 to 2013.

The authors compared morbidity among residents of Temirtau near influence of iron industry enterprises, with Shiutchinsk situated in resort area was taken as a reference region. The morbidity was studied through retrospective analysis over 2005-2009. The study over the 5 years proved steady 1.1-1.4 times increase of general morbidity level. Major entities increased were ophthalmologic diseases, circulatory system and endocrine diseases. Incidence structure among urban adults was presented by leading circulatory and respiratory diseases, significant place was occupied by ophthalmologic diseases, digestive system diseases, nervous system and locomotory system diseases.

The paper deals with the evaluation of the influence of environmental factors on human health. It analyzes morbidity rates and their prediction in the biogeochemically exposed area.

On the basis of the systems approach principles and a procedure of stage-by-stage space-time prediction of water quality of lengthy water sources were developed under their exposure to scattered sources of environment pollution. The proposed calculation procedure took account of the majority of natural and anthropogenic factors of water quality formation. The error constituted 10-34% and grew according to the decrease of uniformity of pollution effect or scattered sources at the predicted area of a water source.